Financial Market Research and Analysis

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Gold tanks to 1171, AUD upbeat
The EURUSD consolidates losses below its 100-hour moving average (1.0595). Selling pressures are expected to challenge the 1.0525-suppport and encourage a further sell-off toward 1.0460 (March 2015 dip). Intra-day resistances are eyed at 1.0595 (100-hour moving average), 1.0640 (200-hour moving average), before 1.0703 (minor 23.6% retracement in Nov 9th to Nov 24th decline). Option puts are expected to weigh below 1.0550/1.0600 before the weekly closing bell.

The USDJPY continues its journey north. Buyers are impatient to build on fresh long positions; as such, the pair is given little room to correct on its way higher. Option markets are supportive of a further rise toward the 115.00 handle. Intra-day support is eyed at 112.68 (50-hour moving average), 111.75 (100-hour moving average), max 110.80/110.65 (minor 23.6% retracement on Nov 9th to Nov 25th rise / 200-hour moving average).

The GBPUSD trades a touch above its 50, 100 and 200-hour moving averages, 1.2430-1.2435. The rising negative pressures are expected to limit the upside attempts pre-1.2487 (Fib 50% level on Nov 11st to Nov 18th decline), max 1.2531 (major 61.8% retrace). Breaking below the 1.2430 should encourage a further slide toward 1.2389 (minor 23.6% retrace), before 1.2300.

The AUDUSD is testing the 200-hour moving average on the upside, despite weak carry inflows and looming downside risks. The recovery should find a base at 0.7390 (weekly ascending channel base & 100-hour moving average). The key short-term resistance is presumed at 0.7489 (major 38.2% retracement on Nov 8th to Nov 21st decline), if surpassed, should signal a short-term bullish reversal to 0.7528 ( moving average) and 0.7543 (Fib 50% level).

Gold rebounded from the critical $1171 (major 61.8% retracement on Dec’15 to Jul’16 rise) in Asia. Short-term recovery to $1180 (former support), $1194 (50-hour moving average) and $1202 (100-hour moving average) could be expected given the oversold market conditions (daily RSI at 23). A slide below $1270 should encourage a further sell-off to $1150, $1121 (minor 76.4% retrace).

The WTI broke below its 100-hour moving average for the first time in a week. Rising negative momentum suggests a potential decline to $46.75/46.70 (major 38.2% retracement on Nov 14th to Nov 22nd rise / 200-hour moving average), before $46.00 (Fib 50% level) and $45.20 (200-day moving average). Solid offers stand at $48.00 before $50.00.

CFD trading is high risk and may not be suitable for everyone.