Financial market research and analysis

EURUSD consolidated gains at around the 200-hour moving average (1.0945). Option bets are mixed at 1.10. A softer-than-expected read in US jobs could gather enough momentum to take over the 1.10 mark. The key mid-term resistance stands at 1.1051 (Fib 38.2% retrace on Dec-Feb rise), below which the EURUSD is considered in the bearish trend. A break below 1.0826 (Mar 2nd low) could pave the way for a further slide to 1.0800/10 (February lows) then all the way down to the 1.0725 (minor 74.6% before 1.0524 (Dec low). The conviction for a possible depreciation toward 1.0524 (Dec low) increases as the count down to the ECB meeting started.

USDJPY consolidated above the 113.50, minor 23.6% retrace on Feb decline). The strengthening positive trend suggests a further extension toward the major 38.2% retrace, 115.08, on Jan 29 – Feb 11 slide). Surpassing 115.08 will signal a potentially sustainable recovery to 116.34 and 117.60 (Fib 50% and 61.8% retrace). Support is seen at 112.90 (200-hma) before 112.00, week’s low. The key support stands at 110.99 (Feb dip).

GBPUSD is offered pre-1.42. The 1.4154, major 38.2% on February-March decline, should distinguish between a further recovery toward the 1.43 (pre-Brexit referendum date announcement) and a pullback toward 1.4032/1.4000 (minor 23.6% / psychological support) before a further slide to fresh seven-year low levels (1.3836) come again into consideration.

AUDUSD extended gains to the critical mid-term resistance of 0.7385 (major 38.2% on May’15 – Jan’16 slide / Dec’14 high). A break above this level could signal a mid-term bullish reversal and could bring the possibility of a rise toward the 75 cent mark (which is also the Fib 50%) on the table.
The 200-dma (0.7253) is expected to lend support before 0.7153/0.7111 area including the 100 and 50 day moving averages and the minor 23.6% retrace on May’15 – Jan’16 slide.

Gold extended gains to $1275. The upside momentum is ready to pick up for an extension toward $1300 mark, should the US labour data gives signs of weakness before the weekly closing bell. Support is eyed at $1255/1235(session low / 200-hma).

WTI is testing $35.00 resistance and appears to be losing some upside momentum. Surpassing the 35.00/35.50 area, an extension to 3$37.20 (100-dma) could be considered. On the downside, support is seen at $33.20 (200-hma), then at the 50dma ($32.30). If support at this level is broken, we could expect to see a further fall to $31.15 (21-dma) before a re-test of the $30 mark.