remains bid below 1.08 as dovish Fed speculations keep the US dollar appetite limited across the board. The pair tested 1.0825 (Fib 23.6% on post-Draghi decline), more resistance is eyed at 1.0877 (Fib 38.2%). Below this level, rallies are expected to meet offers. With improved risk appetite, the bears could get ahead of the game and pull the pair to 1.0730/00 weekly level. Decent vanilla puts trail below 1.08, 1.0750 and 1.0700 for today’s expiry. On the upside, the key mid-term resistance is eyed at 1.1053 (200dma).USDJPY
was better bid in Tokyo along with Japanese stocks (Nikkei gained 0.90%, Topix rallied 1.34%). USDJPY tested Ichimoku baseline (118.75) on the upside. Stronger positive trend suggest a possible extension toward the cloud cover (120.92/122.01), the Fib resistance at 118.95 (major 38.2% on Nov-Jan decline) is yet to be cleared. Support is eyed at 117.90 (pivot).
Asian traders pushed GBPUSD
up to 1.4332 but the hesitation around 1.43 continues into the European open. Overnight gains are fully erased. Technically, the rebound from 1.4080 last week improved the technical picture. The MACD is about to step in the positive territory. Should 1.4255/5 support holds (Fib 38.2% on Jan 21-22 rise), the recovery could aim 1.4395 (50.0% extension before 1.4428 (Fib 31.8% ext.). Key resistance is eyed at 1.4500/555 (major 38.2%).
Sydney watched AUDUSD
’s struggle to defend gains above 0.70. Bulls finally gave up and the AUDUSD slipped to a session low into the European open (0.6977). Trend and momentum indicators are neutral, about to turn positive. Support is eyed at 0.6945 (Fib 23.6% retrace on Dec 31 – Jan 15 decline), then 6880/64 (Jan 15 low).A break above 0.7017 (Fib 38.2%) should suggest a short-term bullish reversal to 0.7075 (Fib 50%) before 0.7149 (100dma).
Mid-term critical resistance remains at 0.7380 (Fib 38.2%). Below 0.7380, the mid-term bias remains negative and we see opportunity in selling the rallies.
The broad USD weakness helped gold
to $1105 despite good risk appetite. Bulls are currently facing offers at 1105/1115 with the help of sifter USD. If cleared, we could see an advance to 1125/1130 (one-month uptrend channel top).
The recovery in oil
market is underway. WTI tested $32.75 on Friday. Although the appetite is more contained this Monday, positive momentum could pick up for further recovery toward 34.00/34.50. Support is eyed at $30/29.50.