03 Oct 2016
By Ipek Ozkardeskaya
GBP sold despite better risk appetite
The EURUSD rebounded to 1.1250 after hitting 1.1152 on Friday, on talks of reduced Deutsche Bank settlement with the US Department of Justice. The pair opened rangebound in Asia. The intra-day supports are eyed at 1.1216 (Fibonacci 50% retracement on Sep 26th to Sep 30th decline & 200-hour moving average) and 1.1200 (major 38.2% retrace). Solid resistance is eyed at 1.1280/1.1300 area.
The USDJPY remained well bid above the 50-hour moving average (101.30). Positive trend gains momentum, as the global markets turn risk-on. A further recovery is on the radar, should the 101.12 support holds (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 21st to Sep 27th decline). Intra-day resistances are eyed at 101.75 (major 61.8% retrace) and 102.15 (minor 76.4% retrace).
The GBPUSD remains under pressure despite the solid GDP read released on Friday (GDP q/q grew 0.7% vs. 0.6% expected). The pair broke below the critical 1.2915 (Sep 23rd support), suggesting an extension of the negative trend toward 1.2865/1.2840 area. The upside attempts are expected to meet resistance at 1.2995 (200-hour moving average), 1.3039 (minor 23.6% retracement on Sep 6th to Sep 23rd decline) and the critical 1.3116 (major 38.2% retrace).
The AUDUSD treaded water above its 200-hour moving average (0.7641) in Sydney. The pair shortly broke below the 0.7612 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 15th to Sep 29th rise) on Friday. The better risk sentiment should encourage a recovery toward 0.7730 (Sep 8th resistance). Buyers are eyed at 0.7612/0.7580.
Gold is testing the 100-day moving average ($1310) on the downside. The US data, and the Fed expectations should determine the mood in the gold market. More support is eyed at 1297 (minor 23.6% retracement on Dec’15 – Jul’16 rise), mid-term support. Resistance is eyed at the 50-day moving average ($1331), before $1342 (3-month descending channel top).
WTI continues its journey north. In the short-run, $47.05 (minor 23.6% retracement on Sep 20th to Sep 29th rise) should continue lending support. Above $46.28 (major 38.2%), the trend will be positive for a recovery toward $50.