Financial Market Research and Analysis

Our analysts have their fingers on the pulse of the world's financial market news.

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GBP softens pre-BoE
The US dollar appetite is a major explanatory factor in the price swings across the board. Trend and momentum indicators on an hourly EURUSD chart are flat-to-negative. Intra-day resistance is eyed at 1.1248 (major 38.2% retracement on Aug 31st to Sep 8th rise), 1.1279 (minor 23.6%) and 1.1295 (ascending channel top). On the downside, the support is eyed at 1.1200 (50% retracement / 200-hour moving average / major 61.8% retrace) before 1.1171 (minor 76.4%) and 1.1123 (Aug 31st low).

The visibility in the USDJPY is very limited due to the joint-uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The appetite in the US dollar suggests a potential positive breakout above the 103.23 (major 61.8% retrace on Sep 2nd to Sep 7th pullback), which could encourage a further recovery to 103.58 (minor 76.4%) and 104.30/104.50. Intra-day supports are presumed at 102.75 (major 50%), 102.55 (200-hour moving average) and 102.40 (major 38.2% retrace).

The GBPUSD took a negative turn after the UK’s inflation data missed the market expectations. As expected, the negative surprise encouraged a pullback to 1.3296 (major 38.2% retrace on Aug 29th – Sep 2nd advance) and 1.3205 (major 61.8%). The Bank of England (BoE) decision is due tomorrow and the consensus is the status quo. The next support is eyed at 1.3150 (minor 76.4%). Intra-day resistances are eyed at 1.3250 (major 50% level) and 1.3310 (200-hour moving average). T

AUDUSD gradually steps lower. The pair hit the top of our support range on a broad based USD appetite, and rebounded. We could expect a pullback toward 0.7440/0.7420 (July 20 & 26th support). The current recovery is expected to run into resistance at 0.7511 (minor 23.6% retracement on Sep 8th to Sep 13th decline), 0.7554 (major 38.2%). Above this level, the short-term bullish reversal should encourage a further recovery toward 0.7590 (200-hour moving average).

The downside pressures on gold are increasing on the back of a stronger US dollar. The Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and the US dollar appetite should continue determining the value of gold on the run to FOMC decision due on September 22nd. The $1305 / 1297 zone (100-day moving average / minor 23.6% retracement on Dec’15 – Jul’16 rise) is seen as a solid mid-term support, while the upside is expected to remain capped at $ 1335 (50-day moving average) and $1350, two-week downtrend channel top.

The market remains seller on rallies in WTI futures. The US’ weekly oil inventories data should trigger a short-term volatility in the US session. Offers are presumed at $45.35 (major 50% retracement on Sep 1st to Sep 8th recovery), 46.60 (minor 23.6% retracement). Below $44.80 (major 61.8%), a further sell-off to could be considered toward $44.10 (minor 74.6%) and $43.00/42.50.

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