Financial Market Research and Analysis

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GBP pairs gains, WTI hits $39.50
EURUSD is offered against the US dollar. The pair is testing the 1.1200 mark. A break below the support could encourage a further downside to 1.1128 (200-day moving average), then to 1.1070 (50% Fibonacci retracement on December to May rise). Surpassing the 1.1226 resistance (100-day moving average), we could expect the EURUSD to extend gains to 1.1358 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement).

The yen surged 4.3% over the previous three days, reaching a three-week high against the US dollar after the monetary-fiscal stimulus disappointed investors. USDJPY trades above 101.00 mark, with the next support at 100.67 (August 2nd low). Below this level, we could see a further slide to 100.00/99.99 (July 8th low), then to 98.99 (June 24th low). A recovery above 102.87 (August 2nd high) should encourage a further recovery to 104.28 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement on January to June decline).

The contraction in PMI figures didn’t have a significant impact on the GBPUSD trading. Yet with the MPC meeting and the Quarterly Inflation Report on the menu, the GBP-rallies could encounter decent resistance heading into Super Thursday. Offers are eyed pre-1.3400. On the downside, the critical support is seen at the 1.3056 (July 26th low), below, the GBPUSD could further retreat to 1.2849 (July 11th low).

Bullish trend in AUDUSD looks well underpinned. The 50-day moving average crossed above the 100-day moving average. Surpassing the 0.7595/0.7600 resistance area, we could see a further rise to 0.7700/0.7710 then to 0.7800/0.7833 (April 21st high). A drop below the 0.7488 (August 2nd low) could cause a setback to 0.7446 (major Fibonacci retracement on January to April rise), then to the critical 0.7354 (200-day moving average) on the radar.

Gold surged almost 28% since the beginning of the year. Surpassing the $1374 level, gold could extend gains towards $1400. Yet, investors could soon start looking for potential downside correction given that the physical demand from China and India, could decline as their economies soften. A drop below $1310 support (50-day moving average) might be the start of a sidewalk move within the $1300-1350 range.

WTI extends losses below $40.00. The next support is eyed at $39.24 (August 2nd low). Below this level, WTI could slide towards $35.00 a barrel. Above $39.81 (intraday high), we could expect a recovery toward $40.88 (August 2nd high).

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