26 Sep 2016
By Ipek Ozkardeskaya
GBP offered despite weaker USD
The EURUSD is recovering. The pair could further extend gains to 1.1284 (Sep 15th peak), 1.1326 (Sep 8th) before 1.445/1.1500, should it hold the support at 1.1205 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 21st to Sep 22nd recovery). More bids are sheltered at 1.1190 / 1.1174 (major 50% and 61.8% retracement).
The USDJPY started the week in a better shape following last week’s attempt toward the 100 level. The pair tested 101.12 (100-hour moving average) in Tokyo. The critical resistance is eyed at 101.34 (major 32.8% retrace on Sep 14th to Sep 22th decline). Above this level, the pair will step in the bullish consolidation zone for a further upside attempt to 101.72 (Fib 50%) and 102.10 (major 61.8% retrace).
The GBPUSD closed below 1.30 for the second day in a row. The negative trend remains in place. Breaking 1.2915 (Sep 23rd low) should pave the way for a re-test of 1.2865 (mid-Aug lows). Intra-day resistances are eyed at 1.3010 / 1.3025 (area including the 100 and 50-hour moving averages respectively), 1.3075 (200-hour moving average) and 1.3116 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 6th to Sep 23th decline).
The AUDUSD gains on good carry appetite amid the Fed remained fairly dovish at the September meeting. Holding support at 0.7590 (major 38.2 retracement on Sep 15th to Sep 22nd rise), the pair is preparing to grab more territory on the upside. Intra-day resistances are eyed at 0.7675 (Sep 22th high), before 0.7730 (Sep 8th resistance).
Gold firms as investors return to the yellow metal on softer Fed. The 50-day moving average ($1331) is expected to encourage buyers for a further recovery to $1345 (3-month descending channel top). The $1310 / 1297 zone (100-day moving average / minor 23.6% retracement on Dec’15 – Jul’16 rise) is seen as a solid mid-term support.
Short positions in oil increased the most in more than a year, although WTI and Brent started the week better bid as Algeria said that Saudi is willing to act in the oil market. Intra-day supports are eyed at $44.37 (major 61.8% retracement on Sep 20th to Sep 23rd recovery) and $43.87 (minor 76.4% support). Solid resistance is eyed at $46.55. Any speculation of an output freeze could help clearing resistance for a further recovery toward $48/$50 zone.’