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GBP: Bulls to confront bears on Brexit
EURUSD continues sitting on the 1.1120 (Fib 50% on Aug-Dec decline) and the euro-traders continue resisting to bears. There is decent resistance at 1.1160, Fib 38.2% retrace on Jan 29 – Feb11 rise, and a break above should signal an improvement in sentiment and pave the way for a further correction to 1.1216 (200-hma) before 1.1243 (minor 23.6% retrace) and 1.1376 (Feb 11 peak). Breaking 1.1120/10 (Fib 50% / daily pivot), we could expect a further fall to 1.1093 (Fib 50%) before 1.1052 (200-day moving average).

USDJPY continues facing solid resistance at 200-hour moving average (114.05), the 113.51 (minor 23.6%) is the nearest support. As the softer US yields continue weighing on the pair, breaking 113.51, we may expect the USDJPY to slide toward the next critical level at 110.99 (Feb 11 dip). On the upside, there is a critical short-term resistance at 115.08 (Fib 38.2% retrace off Jan 29 high 121.69). Option bets are mixed at about 115.00 level; with vanilla calls dominant above. Surpassing 115.08 could bring in play the intermediate resistances at 116.34 and 117.60 (Fib 50% and 61.8% retrace).

GBPUSD consolidated losses in the tight range of 1.4257/1.4313 in Asia. Both bulls and bears stay on the sidelines as discussions on Brexit summit are on the news wires. The MACD is about to step in the red zone. Offers are eyed at to 1.4354 (minor 23.6% retrace on Dec-Jan fall) for possible slide to 1.4150 (Jan 29 low), before 1.4080 (Jan 21 dip). From a mid-term perspective, we watch 1.4523 (major 38.2%) to distinguish between a re-test of 1.4080 (Jan dip) and a further correction to 1.4660/1.4797 (Fib 50%/61.8% respectively).

The knee-jerk losses in AUDUSD following the weak jobs data were limited at 0.7134. The MACD edged the zeroline and curbed higher as the US dollar remained soft on Fed minutes. Above 0.7125, there is scope for clearing resistance at 0.7180/0.7200 to aim a recovery toward the 200-day moving average (0.7285). Below 0.7125, the slide could extend to 0.7080 before 0.7020 mid-term support.

Gold traded in a $5 range in Asia as risk aversion vis-à-vis the world economy keep investors seated on cash and increasingly on gold. Despite the deterioration in the latest bullish momentum, technicals remain in positive territory. The next short-term support is eyed at $1180 (major 38.2% retracement on Dec’15 – Feb’16 rally) and should shelter risk adverse buyers given the hectic market environment. A slide below this level should suggest a short-term bearish reversal and could encourage a further sell-off to $1155 (Fib 50%), before $1131.50 (200-day moving average).

WTI is testing the $32 (4-month downtrend channel top) for a possible extension to $33 (50-day moving average) before $34.50/35.50, mid-term resistance and finally $38.70 (200-day moving average). Failure to break above $32 keeps the WTI within the down-trending channel, with decreasing conviction that the prices of a barrel could fall to $25 however.