Financial Market Research and Analysis

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GBP-bears remain in charge

EURUSD is giving back gains it had accumulated post the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. The pair is expected to retrace to 1.1225 / 1.1200 (50% retracement / 200-hour moving average) in the continuation of the three-day downtrend channel. Intra-day resistances are eyed at 1.1255 (50-hour moving average), 1.1285 (Sep 9th resistance) and 1.1327 (post-ECB peak).

The USDJPY treaded water in Tokyo. The short-term direction remains unclear. Intra-day resistances are eyed at 102.83 (200-hour moving average), 103.32 (minor 23.6% retracement on Aug 26th – Sep 2nd rise). Intra-day support is seen at 102.20/102.18 (major 50% / 100-hour moving average), 101.69 (major 61.8% and ascending base line since Sep 7th) before 101.06 (minor 76.4%) and 100.04 (Sep 26th low).’

The GBP-bears remain in charge. The critical 1.3296 (major 38.2% retrace on Aug 29th – Sep 2nd advance) has been broken on the downside, sending the GBPUSD in the short-term bearish consolidation zone for a further pullback to 1.3205 (major 61.8%) and 1.3150 (minor 76.4%). Intra-day resistances are eyed at 1.3285 (200-hour moving average), 1.3296 (major 38.2%) and 1.3337 (100-hour moving average).

The AUDUSD tanked to 0.7522 after having aggressively broken below the former ascending trend-line base, 0.7648, on Friday. The solid downside momentum suggests a potential pullback toward 0.7490 (Aug 31st low), then to 0.7440/0.7420 (July 20 & 26th support).

Gold stabilized at about $1330 following three consecutive sessions sell-off. The Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and the US dollar appetite will determine the value of gold on the run to FOMC decision due on September 22nd. The $1305 / 1297 zone (100-day moving average / minor 23.6% retracement on Dec’15 – Jul’16 rise) is seen as a solid mid-term support, while the upside is expected to remain capped pre-$1350, two-week downtrend channel top.

Sharp reversal in WTI sent the price of a barrel to $45 from $47.80 top last week. The US dollar and the event risk pre-OPEC meeting hint at two-sided volatility. On the upside, offers are presumed at $45.90 (Major 38.2% retrace on Sep 1st – Sep 8th), $46-60 (minor 23.6% retrace). Below $44.80 (major 61.8%), a further sell-off to could be considered toward $44.10 (minor 74.6%) and $43.00/42.50.

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