Financial Market Research and Analysis

Our analysts have their fingers on the pulse of the world's financial market news.

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FX traders focus on Fed
EURUSD is trading around the 1.1000 mark before the Federal Reserve decision, due this evening at 7pm London time. The Fed is expected to maintain the status quo, yet the markets will be closely monitoring any comments regarding the possibility of a September interest rate hike. The next resistance is eyed at 1.1070 (Fibonacci retracement) before the critical 1.1121 (200-day moving average). Above this level, EURUSD could extend gains towards the 1.1198/1.1200 (major Fibonacci retracement). The first support is seen at 1.0940 (major Fibonacci retracement), if cleared, could trigger a further sell-off to 1.0782 (Fibonacci retracement).

A recent Bloomberg survey revealed that almost 80% of analysts are expecting the Bank of Japan to expand the monetary stimulus on Friday 29th. On the other hand, the possibility of a slightly-more-hawkish Fed could also help the yen softening. The USDJPY is trading at about the 105.50, with the next resistance eyed at 107.10 (100-day moving average). If surpassed, we could expect a further rise to 107.56 (major Fibonacci retracement), then towards 110.25 (Fibonacci retracement) and 111.94/112 (200-day moving average). The short-term support is presumed at 105.10 (50-day moving average). If cleared, we could expect a pullback to 104.24 (Fibonacci retracement). Breaking below the 104.24/104.00, the possibility of a sell-off toward the 100 mark could be brought back on the table.

GBPUSD is moving on the sidelines around 1.3100 before the Fed decision. First resistance level is eyed at 1.3175 (July 26th high). A break on the upside could support a further rise to 1.3200/1.3289 (July 22nd high). Above this level, the pair could even extend gains to 1.3300, and 1.3400/1.3415 (Fibonacci retracement). The first support could be seen at 1.3056 (July 26th low). Below this level, the pair could fall to 1.3000 before 1.2849 (July 11th low).

The inflation in Australia accelerated 0.4%q/q in the second quarter. The AUDUSD rallied to 0.7540 in Sydney as expectations of a further monetary stimulus from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) weakened. Yet traders remain seller on rallies as long as the pair remains below the critical 0.7580, major 61.8% retrace on July 15 – July 20 decline. Surpassing 0.7580, we could see an acceleration toward 0.7675/07700.

Gold is trading at $1320 an ounce pre-Fed. The first support is eyed at $1300 / 1296 (Fibonacci retracement), then 1284 (50-day moving average). The short-term resistance is eyed at $1338 (July 20th high), if surpassed, could encourage a further lift to 1346 (July 14th high), then towards 1374 (July 11th high).

WTI trades above $42.50, the first support is seen at $42.35 (July 26th low) and if broken, could lead to a further slide towards $40.
The first resistance is presumed at $43.00/43.05 (50-hour moving average). If surpassed, WTI could make a fresh attempt to $43.60 (Fibonacci retracement on July13th to July 26th decline), then to $43.90 (100-hour moving average), before the $44.37 (major Fibonacci retracement) and the $45.00 mark. US crude oil inventories due at 15.30 GMT is expected to have declined by 2.1M barrels, which would be the tenth consecutive week of contraction.

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