24 Oct 2016
By Ipek Ozkardeskaya
EUR hits the oversold market
The EURUSD further extended losses to 1.0860 in Asia. The 30-day RSI is now at 25.9, suggesting that the oversold conditions could temporarily ease the selling pressures and lend a support to the EURUSD pre-1.0850/1.0800. Intra-day resistances are eyed at 1.0958 (minor 23.6% retracement on Sep 26th to Oct 24th decline), 1.0980 (200-hour moving average) and 1.1020 (major 38.2% retrace).
The USDJPY traded in less than 20 pips range in Tokyo (103.83/104.00). We remain neutral due to a lack of conviction on both directions. Breaking above 104.65, we could see a further attempt toward 105.00, max 105.50. Short-term resistance is eyed at 103.15 (Oct 19th low) before 102.89 (major 38.2% retracement), if broken, should suggest a short-term bearish reversal.
The GBPUSD started the week a touch below its 50, 100 and 200-hour moving averages, 1.2230/1.2260. A positive breakout above 1.2330 (weekly resistance) should encourage a push to 1.2440 (Fibonacci 50% retracement on Sep 28th to Oct 7th crash). A minor support is eyed at 1.2190 (weekly ascending channel base), if broken could pull Cable to 1.2080.
The AUDUSD is testing a critical support at 0.7620 (Fibonacci 50% level Oct 13th to Oct 20th rise). In addition, the 50-hour moving average is preparing to cross the 200-hour moving average on the downside, suggesting the possibility of an enhanced technical correction, which could bring us to 0.7593 (major 61.8% retrace), than 0.7560 (minor 76.4% retrace). Intra-day resistances are eyed at 0.7655 (100-hour moving average), 0.7680 (minor 23.6% retrace) before 0.7730 mid-term resistance.
Gold remains offered below $1278, the 200-day moving average. We could expect a minor correction to $1255/ 1250 (major 38.2% retracement on Dec 16th to Jun 5th rise). Clearing $1278 should pave the way for a rise to $1297 (minor 23.6% retrace).
The WTI trades in between the $50/52 range. A breakout in either direction is needed to assess fresh short-term trend. Below $50.00 (minor 23.6% retrace on Sep 20th to Oct 19th rise), we could expect a further decline to $48.68 (major 38.2% retrace). A move above $52.00/52.60 area should clear the way to $53.00/55.00 mid-term resistance.