Financial Market Research and Analysis

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EUR dips post-ECB meeting
The EURUSD sold-off to a fresh seven month low, amid the European Central Bank refrained from talking about the end of its quantitative easing program at Thursday’s meeting. Selling pressures remain in place for a further fall to 1.0880/1.0850. Intra-day resistances are eyed at 1.0986 (minor 23.6% retracement on Sep 26th to Oct 21st decline), 1.1004 (200-hour moving average) and 1.1042 (major 38.2% retrace).

The USDJPY hovers in a tight range around its 50, 100 and 200-hour moving averages (103.65/103.85 area). We remain neutral due to a lack of conviction on both directions. Breaking above 104.65, we could see a further attempt toward 105.00, max 105.50. A minor resistance is eyed at 103.15 (Oct 19th low) before the critical 102.89 (major 38.2% retracement), if broken, should suggest a short-term bearish reversal.

The GBPUSD refuses to move on either side. The pair trades rangebound in a tight range around its 50, 100 and 200-hour moving averages (1.2240/1.2270 area). A positive breakout should encourage a push to 1.2440 (Fibonacci 50% retracement on Sep 28th to Oct 7th crash), while support is eyed at 1.2155 (weekly ascending channel base).

The AUDUSD remained well supported at 0.7620 (Fibonacci 50% level Oct 13th to Oct 20th rise) following a decent profit-taking triggered after hitting 0.7730 mid-term resistance. Holding support at this level, we could expect a renewed appetite to 0.7680 (minor 23.6% retrace) before 0.7730/0.7750. While breaking below 0.7620/0.7612 (Fib 50% / 200-hour moving average) should encourage a deeper correction to 0.7593 (major 61.8% retrace), 0.7560 (minor 76.4% retrace).

Gold has been unsuccessful at its first attempt to clear resistance at $1277, the 200-day moving average. We could expect a minor correction to $1255/ 1250 (major 38.2% retracement on Dec 16th to Jun 5th rise). Breaking above $1277 should gather momentum for a rise to $1297 (minor 23.6% retrace).

The second failure to break above the $52 weighs on the WTI’s positive momentum. Support is seen at $50.30/ 50.00 (intra-day support / minor 23.6% retracement on Sep 20th to Oct 20th rise), before $49.65 (Oct 13th low) and $48.90. Breaking above the $52 resistance should clear the way to $53.00/55.00 mid-term resistance.

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