Financial Market Research and Analysis

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Aussie rallies post-RBA, JPY flat
The euro was better bid in Asia, yet the EURUSD remained offered pre-1.1000. A minor support is eyed at 1.0958 (minor 23.6% retracement on Oct 25th to Oct 28th rise) for a re-test of 1.1000/1.1040-resistance area. The weekly bullish development is expected to see a further support at 1.0938 (major 38.2% retracement), below which, the EURUSD will step into the bearish consolidation zone for a fall to 1.0915 (200-hour moving average) before 1.0850/1.0860 (last week lows).

The USDJPY gave a little reaction to BoJ’s announcement to delay the timing of its inflation target. The USDJPY remained offered pre-105.00 handle. The key resistance is eyed at 105.66, the 200-day moving average. A minor support could be found at 104.26 (minor 23.6% retracement on Sep 27th to Oct 28th rise), before the critical 103.44 (major 38.2% retrace).

The GBPUSD remains well bid above 1.2207 (Fibonacci 50% on Oct 19th to Oct 25th decline) before the UK manufacturing PMI release. A positive surprise should encourage a recovery to 1.2295 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 28th to Oct 7th crash) and 1.2330 (weekly resistance), whereas a soft read could trigger a minor sell-off heading into the Super Thursday. Intra-day supports are eyed 1.2210/1.2207 (200-hour moving average / 38.2% retrace), 1.2178 (major 38.2% retrace), before 1.2141 (minor 23.6% retrace) and 1.2080. Stops are eyed below.

The AUDUSD rallied to 0.7659 as the Reserve Bank of Australia hold fire at today’s monetary policy meeting. Moreover, the new RBA governor Lowe’s reluctance regarding the easy money policies trimmed expectations of a potential interest rate cut in the mid-run. The pair is expected to extend gains to 0.7674 (minor 76.4% retracement on Oct 26th to Oct 28th decline) before 0.7710/0.7730 mid-term resistance. Intra-day supports are eyed at 0.7634 (Fib 50% level) and 0.7624 (200-hour moving average), before the critical 0.7616 (major 38.2% retracement & 100-hour moving average).

Higher US yields slowdown the positive momentum in gold, yet the yellow metal is challenging the 200-day moving average, $1280, for the third consecutive session. Clearing 1280-resistance should encourage a further recovery to $1297 (minor 23.6% retrace on Dec’15 to Jul’16 rise). Intra-day support is seen at $1260, while the $1255/1250 (major 38.2% retrace) should lend a mid-term base for the bullish development.

The WTI tanked to $46.33 on fading expectations for an OPEC agreement to cut production. The bias remains on the downside, with short-term resistances seen at $47.70 (minor 23.6% retracement on Oct 19th to Oct 31st fall) and $48.56 (major 38.2% retrace).

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