Financial Market Research and Analysis

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AUD gains post-RBA, EUR under pressure
The European Central Bank (ECB) is due to meet on Thursday. The EURUSD softens on dovish ECB expectations. Although the ECB is not expected to act on Thursday’s meeting, Governor Mario Draghi is expected to speak out dovish signals regarding its current monetary policy. The bias in the EURUSD remains on the downside. The critical resistance is seen at 1.1215 (major 38.2% retracement on Aug 8th – Aug 31st decline). Clearing the 1.1122-support (Aug 31st low), the EURUSD is expected to extend weakness to 1.1045 (Aug 4th low) before 1.10.

The USDJPY tested the 100-hour moving average, 103.46, on the downside. Yet decent dip buying occurred above the 103.00 level and send the pair back above its 100-hma. The pair is still considered in the positive trend above 102.71, the major 38.2% retracement on post-Jackson Hole rally. The possibility of a further recovery to 104.40/105.00 is still on the cards. Only a break below 102.71 should hint at a short-term bearish reversal targeting the 102.54 (200-hour moving average), and 102.20 (major 50%).

The appetite in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair is gathering enough momentum to grasp additional territory toward 1.3500 (psychological resistance) and 1.3640 (major 38.2% retracement on post-Brexit sell-off, mid-term resistance to the post-Brexit bearish trend). Intraday support is seen at 1.3300 (minor 23.6% retracement on Aug 29th – Sep 2nd advance & ) and 1.3255 (major 38.2% retrace).

The AUDUSD advanced to 0.7637 as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy unchanged. The pair recovered half of losses recorded on the period from August 16th to August 31st. Combined with the fading expectations of a September Fed rate hike, the rate differential should encourage fresh carry inflows and push the AUDUSD toward 0.7700/0.7750 area. Intra-day support is presumed at 0.7587 (38.2% retrace on Aug 16th – Aug 31st decline) and 0.7567 (200-hour moving average).

Gold consolidates gains as the negative daily momentum loses pace. There is room for further recovery toward the 50-day moving average, $1337, given that the fading expectations of a September Fed rate hike decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold. The $1303 / 1297 (100-day moving average / minor 23.6% retracement on Dec’15 – Jul’16 rise) is seen as a solid mid-term support.

WTI rallied to $46.50 on news that Saudi Arabia and Russia are ready to cooperate, without however agreeing to freeze their output. The ideal is to bring the price of oil to at least $50/barrel. WTI stabilized above the $45 level in Asia. Short-term resistance is seen at $45.90 (200-hour moving average) and $46.20 (50% retrace on Aug 18th – Sep 2nd decline).

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