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30 Sep 2016
By Ipek Ozkardeskaya
AUD could reverse trend
The USDJPY failed to consolidate gains. The rush into the yen pulled the USDJPY lower in Tokyo, despite the golden cross formation on the hourly chart (50-hour moving averages crossing above 200-hour moving average). Intra-day resistances are eyed at 100.96 (200-hour moving average), 101.12 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 21st to Sep 27th decline) and 101.44 (50% level). On the downside, buyers are presumed sub-100.00.
The fundamentals continue weighing on the pound. The market remains seller on GBPUSD rallies above the 1.30 handle. The critical short-term support is eyed at 1.2915 (Sep 23rd support). Below this level, we could see an extension of the negative trend toward 1.2865/1.2840 area. The key resistance stands at 1.3116 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 6th to Sep 23th decline).
The short-term bullish trend is about to reverse in the AUDUSD. The pair is testing the critical 0.7612 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 15th to Sep 29th rise). Below 0.7612, the AUDUSD should step in the bearish consolidation zone and could extend losses to 0.7582 (major 50%). Intra-day resistances are eyed at 0.7649 (minor 23.6%) and 0.7730 (Sep 8th resistance).
We see little action on the gold market. The yellow metal treads water below its 50-day moving average ($1331). The $1312 / 1297 zone (100-day moving average / minor 23.6% retracement on Dec’15 – Jul’16 rise) is seen as a solid mid-term support. Reconquering the 50-day moving average, we could expect a further attempt to $1342 (3-month descending channel top).
WTI consolidates gains on chatters that a future action is needed for a sustained recovery in the oil market. In the short-run, $47.05 (minor 23.6% retracement on Sep 20th to Sep 29th rise) should lend support. Above $46.28 (major 38.2%), the trend will be positive for a recovery toward $50.
